AI News 2024-12-19

General

  • Ilya Sutskever was co-recipient of the test-of-time award at NeurIPS 2024, for the 2014 paper: Sequence to Sequence Learning with Neural Networks, currently cited >28,000 times. Video of his speech here, in which he makes many provocative points: compute is growing but data is not (we only have one Internet, data is the fossil fuel of AI); scaling still matters, and we must determine what to scale; what comes next will be a mix of agents, synthetic data, and inference-time computer; strongly reasoning systems will be unpredictable; superintelligence is coming.
  • Anthropic present Clio, a system that provides an aggregated view of what people are using Claude to do. So this allows one to observe trends in AI usage. Paper: Clio: Privacy-Preserving Insights into Real-World AI Use.

OpenAI

Research Insights

LLM

  • Microsoft releases a small-but-capable model: Phi-4 (14B). It heavily uses synthetic data generation and post-training to improve performance (including on reasoning tasks).
  • Google’s Project Mariner, a chrome extension for agentic AI.
  • Google release Gemini 2.0 Flash Thinking, a reasoning model (available in AI studio).

Safety

  • Anthropic releases a new method to jailbreak AI models, using an automated attack method. By identifying this vulnerability, one can build future models to resist it. Paper: Best-of-N Jailbreaking (code). The method iteratively makes small changes to prompts, attempting to slide through countermeasures.
    • The flavor of successful attacks also gives insights into LLMs. Successful prompts may involve strange misspellings or capitalizations; or unusual images with text and colored boxes arranged peculiarly. This is similar to other adversarial attacks (e.g. on image classification models). They have a certain similarity to human optical illusions: generating perverse arrangements meant to trick otherwise useful processing circuits. Improved model training can progressively patch these avenues; but it’s hard to imagine models that completely eliminate them until one achieves truly robust intelligence.
  • Anthropic publish: Alignment Faking in Large Language Models. They find evidence for alignment faking, wherein the model selectively complies with an objective in training, in order to prevent modification of its behavior after training. Of course the setup elicited this behavior, but it is surprising in the sense that LLMs don’t have persistent memory/awareness, and troubling in the sense that this shows even LLMs can engage in somewhat sophisticated scheming (e.g. they have evidence for these decisions going on during the LLM forward-pass, not in chain-of-thought).

Video

Audio

  • ElevanLabs introduce a Flash TTS model, with latency of just 75 milliseconds.

World Synthesis

Science

Brain

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AI News 2024-12-12

OpenAI

  • Dec 5: o1 is out of preview. The updated o1 is faster (uses fewer tokens) while improving performance. And they have introduced a “Pro” version of o1 (thinks for even longer).
    • Here’s an example from a biomedical professor about o1-pro coming up with a legitimately useful and novel research idea.
  • Dec 5: There is now a ChatGPT Pro tier, $200/month for unlimited access to all the best models (including o1 Pro).
  • Dec 6: Reinforcement Fine-Tuning Research Program. Selected orgs will be able to RL OpenAI models for specific tasks. This is reportedly much more sample-efficient and effective than traditional fine-tuning. It will be reserved for challenging engineering/research tasks.
  • Dec 9: Sora officially released (examples).
  • Dec 10: Canvas has been improved and made available to all users.
  • Dec 11: ChatGPT integration into Apple products.
  • Dec 12: ChatGPT can pretend to be Santa.

Google

Research Insights

  • Google DeepMind: Mastering Board Games by External and Internal Planning with Language Models. Search-based planning is used to help LLMs play games. They investigate both externalized search (MCTS) and internalized (CoT). The systems can achieve high levels of play. Of course the point is not to be better than a more specialized/dedicated neural net trained on that game; but to show how search can unlock reasoning modalities in LLMs.
  • Training Large Language Models to Reason in a Continuous Latent Space. Introduces Chain of Continuous Thought (COCONUT), wherein you directly feed the last hidden state as the input embedding for the next token. So instead of converting to human-readable tokens, the state loops internally, providing a continuous thought.
  • New preprint considers how “capability density” is increasing over time: Densing Law of LLMs. They find that, for a given task, every 3 months the model size needed to accomplish it is halved. This shows that hardware scaling is not the only thing leading to consistent improvements.

LLM

  • Meta released Llama 3.3 70B, which achieves similar performance to Llama 3.1 405B. Meta also announced plans for a 2GW datacenter in Louisiana, for future open-source Llama releases.
  • Ruliad introduces Deepthought 8B (demo), which claims good reasoning for the model size.
  • Stephen Wolfram released a post about a new Notebook Assistant that integrates into Wolfram Notebooks. Wolfram describes this as a natural-language interface to a “computational language”.
  • GitIngest is a tool to “turn codebases into prompt-friendly text”. It will take a github repository, and turn it into a text document for easy inclusion into LLM context.
  • While we haven’t seen a “new class of model” (bigger/better than GPT4) in quite a while, it’s worth remembering the substantial improvements we’ve seen from perfecting the existing systems (from Epoch AI benchmarks). On Ph.D.-level Q&A, over the last year we’ve gone from no-better-than-random to roughly human-expert:

AI Agents

Audio

  • ElevenLabs added GenFM to their web product: you can now generate AI podcasts, and listeners can tune in on the ElevenReader app.

Image Synthesis

Vision

3D

Science

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AI News 2024-12-05

General

  • The End of Productivity: Why creativity is the new currency of success. The essay argues that focus on pure productivity (and metrics) misses the things that humans value most. And that, potentially, the era of AI will actually shift in an emphasis from human productivity to human creativity being the focus of value.
  • An interesting experiment (assuming it’s true): an AI jailbreaking contest. An AI agent was tasked with not approving an outgoing money transfer. Anyone can spend a small amount of money to send the AI a message. The money is added to the pool, and the cost-per-message increases slightly. It started at $10/message, and quickly grew to $450/message with a prize-pool of $50k. At that point, someone tricked the AI by sending a message that explained an inverted meaning of approveTransfer. So, they won the money.
    • This acts as the usual reminder that modern LLMs are not robust against dedicated attackers that seek to trick them and extract information.
  • Reportedly: Elon Musk lands priority for Nvidia GB200 delivery in January with US$1.08 billion. Paying a premium to get earlier access to next-gen chips may well be a good strategy.
  • An interesting blog post by Lilian Weng: Reward Hacking in Reinforcement Learning. Some notes about modern RLHF applied to LLMs (based on this paper):
    • RLHF increases human approval, but not necessarily correctness.
    • RLHF weakens humans’ ability to evaluate: The error rate of human evaluation is higher after RLHF training.
    • RLHF makes incorrect outputs more convincing to humans. The evaluation false positive rate significantly increases after RLHF training.
  • Andrej Karpathy provides an interesting historical look at how the transformer architecture was invented (c.f. Attention Is All you Need.)
  • A critical analysis of “openness” in AI: Why ‘open’ AI systems are actually closed, and why this matters. They note that the current version of “open” does not preclude concentration of power.

Research Insights

LLM

  • Amazon enters the fight with Nova (docs, benchmarks). Although not leading on benchmarks, they promise good performance-per-dollar; will be available on Amazon Bedrock.

AI Agents

Audio

  • Hume adds a voice creation mode where one can adjust intuitive sliders to pick out the desired voice.
  • ElevenLabs previously announced intentions to build a conversational AI platform. This capability is now launching; they claim it their interface makes it extremely easy to build a conversational voice bot, and allows you to select the LLM that is called behind-the-scenes.

Video

  • Google et al. show off: Generative Omnimatte: Learning to Decompose Video into Layers (preprint). It can separate a video into distinct layers, including associating affects (e.g. shadows) with the correct layer (parent object), and inpainting missing portions (e.g. occluded background). Obvious utility for visual effects work: can be used to make a particular person/object invisible (including their shadows), to apply edits to just one component (object or background), etc.
  • Invideo are demoing a system where a single prompt generates an entire video sequence telling a story (example). I think that creators generally want more granular control of output so they can put together a precise narrative. But there are use-cases where this kind of fully automated generation may make sense.
    • It’s easy to look at the output and find the visual or narrative flaws. But also interesting to remember how advanced this is compared to what was possible 6-9 months ago. There is obviously a huge amount of untapped potential in these kinds of systems, as they become more refined.
  • Runway tease a prototype for a system to enable control over generative video, where videos are defined by keyframes and adjusting the connection/interpolation between them (blog post).
    • In October 2023, there were some prototypes of a “prompt travel” idea wherein a video was generated by picking a path through the image-generation latent space. One would define keyframe images, and the system would continually vary the effective prompt to interpolate between them (preprint, animatediff-cli-prompt-travel). This provided a level of control (while not being robust enough to actually enforce coherent temporal physics). Runway’s approach (leveraging a video model) may finally enable the required control and consistency.
  • Tencent announce an open-source video model: Hunyuan Video (example, video-to-video example).

World Synthesis

Science

Brain

  • Whole-brain mapping is advancing. We recently saw release of a fly brain map (140,000 neurons). Now, a roadmap effort claims that whole-brain mapping for mammalian brains should be possible in the coming years.

Hardware

  • ASML released a hype-video describing the complexity of modern lithography (in particular the computational lithography aspect). There is no new information, but it’s a nice reminder of the nature of the state-of-the-art.
  • I never grow tired of looking at plots of Moore’s Law:

Robots

  • MagicLab released a video purporting to show multi-(humanoid)robot collaboration on tasks.
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AI News 2024-11-28

General

Research Insights

LLM

AI Agents

Image Synthesis

Audio

Video

World Synthesis

Science

Hardware

Robots

  • Although the Unitree G1 humanoid robot was announced with a price of $16k (c.f.), the latest price chart shows a range of configurations, with prices from $40k to $66k.
  • Mercedes is running a trial for use of Apptronik robot in their Austin lab.
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AI News 2024-11-21

General

Research Insights

LLM

  • New study: AI-generated poetry is indistinguishable from human-written poetry and is rated more favorably. At least part of the effect may come from non-experts judging the simpler and more conventional AI poems as being more understandable and superior (and thus human), while the complexity and inconsistency of human-generated poetry is perceived as incoherence.
    • Nevertheless, this again shows that for short-form generation, AI has already reached human-level, and can be considered super-human in certain narrow ways.
  • Mistral releases a new large model (Mistral-Large-Instruct-2411, 123B) and Pixtral Large multimodal model (weights).
  • DeepSeek announces DeepSeek-R1-Lite-Preview. This is a “reasoning” model (inference-time chain-of-thought) that seems to be similar to OpenAI’s o1. Like o1, it achieves impressive results on math and science benchmarks. Some of the CoT reasoning traces are quite interesting (e.g.). The weights are not yet available, but they claim they will release it open-source.

AI Agents

Image Synthesis

  • A recent survey of 11,000 people has completed: How Did You Do On The AI Art Turing Test? The median score (to differentiate AI and human art) was 60%, a bit above chance. AI art was often preferred by humans. Overall, AI art has already crossing a Turing-Test threshold.

Audio

Video

Science

Hardware

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AI News 2024-11-14

General

Research Insights

LLM

AI Agents

Video

World Synthesis

Science

Robots

  • New Deep Robotics video shows very good terrain navigation from a quadruped-with-wheels design.
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Concise Argument for ASI Risk

I listened to the debate between Stephen Wolfram and Eliezer Yudkowsky on Machine Learning Street Talk (MLST).

I found the discussion frustrating, since it felt like they were trying to have two very different conversations: Wolfram questioning basic principles and trying to build the argument from the foundations, Yudkowsky taking AI risk as being mostly self-evident and defending particular aspects of his thesis.

Yudkowsky seems reluctant to provide a concise point-wise argument for AI risk, which leads to these kinds of strange debates where he defends a sequence of narrow points that feel mostly disconnected. From his body of work, I infer two general reasons why he does this:

  1. He has learned that different people find different parts of the argument obvious vs. confusing, true vs. false. So rather than reiterate the whole argument, he tries to identify the parts they take issue with, and deal with those. This might work for one-on-one discussions, but for public debates (where the actual audience is the broader set of listeners), this makes it feel like Yudkowsky doesn’t have a coherent end-to-end argument (though he definitely does).
  2. Yudkowsky’s style, in general, is not to just “give the answer,” but rather to lead the reader through a sequence of thoughts by which they should come to the right conclusion. In motivated pedagogy (where the reader is trying to learn), this is often the right way. “Giving the answer” won’t cause the person to learn the underlying pattern; the answer might feel too obvious and be quickly forgotten. Thus one instead tries to guide the person through the right thoughts. But to a resistant listener, this leaves the (incorrect) impression that the person’s arguments are vague.

Let me try to put together a step-wise argument for ASI risk. I think it goes something like:

  1. Humans are actively trying to make AIs smarter, more capable, and more agentic (including giving access/control to real-world systems like computers and robots and factories).
  2. There is no particular ceiling at human intelligence. It is possible in principle for an AI to be much smarter than a human, and indeed there are lots of easy-to-imagine ways that they would outstrip human abilities to predict/plan/make-decisions.
  3. AIs will, generically, “go hard”; meaning they will put maximal effort into achieving their goals.
  4. The effective goals of a powerful optimizer will tend to deviate strongly from the design goals. There are many reasons for this:
    • It is hard to reliably engineer something as fuzzy (and, ultimately, inconsistent) as human values.
    • Optimizers often have a mis-alignment between the intended goal and the realized inner optimization (inner/outer alignment problem, mesa-optimizers, etc.).
      • The analogy to evolution is often offered: evolution is optimizing for replication of genes, yet enacted human values have only a little to do with that (wanting to have children, etc.); humans mostly care about non-genetic things (comfort, happiness, truth), and are often misaligned to genes (using contraception).
    • Even goals perfectly-specified for a modest context (e.g. human-scale values) will generalize to a broader context (e.g. control the light-cone) in an ill-defined way. There is a one-to-many mapping from the small to the large context, and so there is no way to establish the dynamics to pick which exact goals are enacted in the extrapolated context.
  5. In the space of “all possible goals”, the vast majority are nonsense/meaningless. A small subspace of this total space is being selected by human design (making AIs that understand human data, and do human things like solve problems, design technology, make money, etc.). Even within this subspace, however, there is enormous heterogeneity to what the “effective goals” look like; and only a tiny fraction of those possible AI goals involve having flourishing humans (or other sentient minds).
    • To be clear, humans will design AIs with the intention that their effective goals preserve human flourishing, but (c.f. #4) this is a difficult, ill-posed problem. The default outcome is an AI optimizing for something other than human flourishing.
  6. A powerful system pursuing goals that don’t explicitly require humans will, generally speaking, not be good for humans. For instance, a system trying to harness as much energy as possible for its computational goals will not worry about the fact that humans die as it converts all the matter in the solar system into solar cells and computer clusters.
  7. A superhuman (#2) system with real-world control (#1) pursuing (with maximum effort, #3) goals misaligned to human values (#4) will try to enact a future that does not include humans (#5). It will, generically, succeed in this effort, which will incidentally exterminate humans (#6).
    • Moreover, this isn’t a case where one can just keep trying until one gets it right. The very first ASI could spell ruin, after which one does not get another change. It’s like trying to send a rocket to the moon, without being able to do test flights! (And where failure means extinction.)

This argument has many things left unspecified and undefended. The purpose is not to provide an airtight argument for ASI risk; but rather to enumerate the conceptual steps, so that one can focus a discussion down to the actual crux of disagreement.

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AI News 2024-11-07

General

Research Insights

  • Agent S: An Open Agentic Framework that Uses Computers Like a Human (code).
  • TokenFormer: Rethinking Transformer Scaling with Tokenized Model Parameters. Treats model parameters as tokens, so that input queries become attentional lookups to retrieve model parameters. This leads to an efficiency improvement when scaling.
  • How Far is Video Generation from World Model: A Physical Law Perspective (preprint, code, video abstract). They train a video model on simple physics interactions. The model generalizes perfectly within-distribution, but fails in general when extrapolating out-of-distribution. This implies the model is not learning the underlying physics.
    • A valid question is whether they provided enough coverage in training, and enough scale (data, parameters, training compute) to actually infer generalized physics. It’s possible that at a sufficient scale, robust physics modeling appears as an emergent capability.
    • Conversely, the implication might be that generalization tends to be interpolative, and the only reason LLMs (and humans?) appear generalized is that they have enough training data that they only ever need to generalize in-distribution.
  • Mixtures of In-Context Learners. Allows one to extract more value from existing LLMs, including those being accessed via cloud (weights not available). The method creates a set of different “experts” by calling an LLM repeatedly with different in-context examples. Instead of just merging or voting on their final responses, one can try to consolidate their responses at the token level by looking at the distribution of predictions for next token. This allows one, for instance, to provide more examples than the context window allows.
    • It would be interesting to combine this approach with entropy sampling methods (e.g. entropix) to further refine performance.
  • AI swarms require communication between agents, but right now there are many competing methods for multi-agent coordination (Camel, Swarm, LangChain, AutoGen, MetaGPT). Researchers at Oxford have proposed a scheme (Agora) for AI agents can auto-negotiate a structured protocol: A Scalable Communication Protocol for Networks of Large Language Models (preprint).

LLM

  • Anthropic added visual PDF support to Claude. Now, when Claude ingests a PDF, it does not only consider a textual conversion of the document, but can also see the visual content of the PDF, allowing it to look at figures, layout, diagrams, etc.
  • Anthropic releases Claude 3.5 Haiku, a small/efficient model that actually surpasses their older large model (Claude 3 Opus) on many benchmarks.

Tools

  • Google is now making available Learn About, a sort of AI tutor that can help you learn about a topic. (Seems great for education.)

Image Synthesis

Audio

Video

World Synthesis

  • Neural reproductions of video games are impressive. We’ve seen Doom, Super Mario Bros., and Counter-Strike.
    • Now, Decart AI (working with Etched) are showing a playable neural-rendered video game (basically Minecraft). Playable here (500M parameters, code). Right now, this is just a proof-of-principle. There is no way for the game designer to design an experience, and the playing itself is not ideal (e.g. it lacks persistence for changes made to terrain). It feels more like a dream than a video game. But the direction this is evolving is clear: we could have a future class of video games (or, more broadly, simulation environments) that are designed using AI methods (prompting, iterating, etc.), and neural-rendered in real-time. This would completely bypass the traditional pipelines.
      • To underscore why you should be thinking about this result in a “rate of progress” context (rather than what it currently is), compare: AI video 2022 to AI video today. So, think about where neural-world-rendering will be in ~2 years.
    • And we now also have GameGen-X: a diffusion transformer for generating and controlling video game assets and environments.

Science

  • Anthropic’s “Golden Gate Claude” interpretability/control method consists of identifying legible features in activation space. Researchers have applied this mechanistic interpretability to understanding protein language models. They find expected features, such as one associated with the repeating sequence of an alpha helix or beta hairpin (visualizer, code, SAE). More fully understanding the learned representation may well give new insights into proteins.
    • More generally, it is likely a very fruitful endeavor to train large models on science data, and search in a feature space for expected features (confirm it learned known physics), and thereafter search for novel physics in the space.

Robots

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What is an AI Agent?

The importance of AI agents continues to grow, which makes it mildly concerning that there is no agreed-upon definition of “AI Agent.” Some people use it to refer to any LLM activation (where “multi-agent” might then just mean chaining multiple LLM calls) whereas others reserve it for only for generally intelligent AI taking independent actions in the real-world (fully agentic). The situation is further confused by the fact that the term “agent” has been used for decades to just refer to a generic software process.

This thread tried to crowd-source a definition. The ones that resonate with me are those that emphasize memory and tool-use, reasoning, and long-running operation on general tasks. So, I offered:

AI Agent: A persistent AI system that autonomously and adaptively completes open-ended tasks through iterative planning, tool-use, and reasoning.

To further refine definitions:

Raw data is used to train a base model, which can be fine-tuned (e.g. into a chatbot). If we scaffold the LLM with tools (document retrieval, software APIs, etc.), we call it an AI Assistant (or a Co-pilot, if we embed it in an existing application or workflow).

We can also exploit iterative deliberation cycles (of many possible sorts) to give the LLM a primitive sort of “system 2” reasoning capability. We can call this a Reasoning AI (such systems are rare and currently primitive, but OpenAI o1 points in this direction). A Reasoning Assistant thus combines iteration with scaffolding.

An AI Agent, then, is a reasoning AI with tool-use, that runs for a long-horizon so that it can iteratively work on complex problems.

Beyond that, we can also imagine multi-agent ecosystems, which work on even more complex tasks by collaborating, breaking complex problems into parts (for specialized agents to work on), and combining results. Finally (and most ambitiously), we can imagine that this “swarm” of AI agents is deeply integrated into human work, such that it feels more like an exocortex.

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AI News 2024-10-31

General

Research Insights

  • adi has proposed a new benchmark for evaluating agentic AI: MC bench (code). It consists of having the agent build an elaborate structure in Minecraft. By using humans to A/B rank the visual output, the capability of agents can be ranked.
  • Anthropic have provided an update to their interpretability work, where the activation space is projected concisely into a higher-dimensional space using sparse auto-encoders (SAE). Now, they posted: Evaluating feature steering: A case study in mitigating social biases. Earlier work showed that they can enforce certain kinds of model behaviors or personalities by exploiting a discovered interpretable feature. Now, they further investigate; focusing on features related to social bias. They find that they can, indeed steer the model (e.g. elicit more neutral and unbiased responses). They also find that pushing too far away from a central “sweet spot” leads to reduced capabilities.
  • RL, but don’t do anything I wouldn’t do. In traditional training, parts of the semantic space without data are simply interpolated. This can lead to unintended AI behaviors in those areas. In particular, this means when an AI isn’t sure what to do, they do exactly that undefined thing. This new approach tries to consider uncertainty. So when an AI isn’t sure about an action, it is biased towards not taking that action. This captures a sort of “don’t do anything I might not do” signals.
  • Mixture of Parrots: Experts improve memorization more than reasoning. The “mixture-of-experts” method (of having different weights that get triggered depending on context) seems to improve memorization (more knowledge for a given inference-time parameter budget) but not reasoning. This makes sense; reasoning is more of an “iterative deliberation” process that benefits from single-pass parameters and multi-pass refinement.
  • The Geometry of Concepts: Sparse Autoencoder Feature Structure. Tegmark et al. report on finding the feature space of LLMs spontaneously organizes in a hierarchical manner: “atomic” structures at small-scale, “brain” organization at intermediate-scale, and “galaxy” distribution at large-scale.

LLM

Audio

Image Synthesis

Video

World Synthesis

Robots

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